A very interesting story in relation to a pioneering technique dubbed ‘predictive policing’ was reported in The Independent today.
“The technique to predict crime before it happens could be imported from the United States to this country. Pilots of the scheme – under which officers are dispatched to crime hotspots identified by computer – have had early success in California.”
The article is a little short on detail and appears to over simplify what can be a complex process, but it appears that the technique that is being described is akin to ‘predictive analytics’ – a method that has been employed in UK intelligence-led policing for many years now. Using a combination of computers and intelligence analysts that are experienced in human behavioural assessment to make predictions based on collected data.
Since the introduction of the National Intelligence Model (NIM) and intelligence-led policing in the year 2000, dedicated intelligence units comprising intelligence analysts and intelligence officers have been the standard throughout all UK police forces.
Intelligence-led policing methods consisting of crime pattern and incident analysis; hot-spot analysis, intelligence reports and a host of other data provided by patrol officers, as well as operational field intelligence officers and their confidential informants, are all used by intelligence analysts to predict where future crime may well occur and also give indications as to the perpetrator.
Although much success has been achieved via intelligence-led policing it is not an exact science and is therefore not fool-proof. The system is severely tested when there is insufficient manpower. Pouring resources into a crime hotspot can solve the problem in the identified area but often can shift the problem to another area. Having sufficient human resources to deal with the displacement of criminal behaviour seems to be the an important factor.
It would seem that this ‘predictive policing’ has reduced the whole process to a computer algorithm and we all wait with great anticipation to measure its effect.
Related articles
- Memphis Cops Use Predictive Analytics to Fight Crime (pcworld.com)
- What are the alternatives to stop and search? (bbc.co.uk)
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